Ballot Measure Recommendations
With the primary election around the corner on June 5, Ag Council’s board of directors recently took positions regarding specific ballot measures on the June 5 Primary Election ballot. Please read on for further details.
Support Prop 70
Two-thirds Vote for Cap and Trade Expenditures in 2024
Prop 70 requires a two-thirds supermajority vote in 2024 to authorize expenditures of cap and trade funds. This is a one-time supermajority approval by the Legislature to provide an evaluation tool to review how cap and trade funds are being spent. The measure encourages bipartisan negotiation regarding the expenditures of cap and trade funds in 2024. Currently, cap and trade expenditure plans require a simple majority vote.
Ag Council’s board of directors voted to SUPPORT Prop 70 as an accountability measure providing an opportunity for legislators to review how cap and trade funds are disbursed and pave the way for bipartisan support for a cap and trade expenditure plan via a two-thirds vote in 2024.
Support Prop. 69
Transportation Spending Accountability
Ag Council’s board of directors recently voted to SUPPORT Proposition 69. The ballot measure requires tax revenues from gas and diesel taxes, as well as vehicle registration fees, to be used for transportation purposes only, such as repairs of highways and local streets and improving mass transit.
As background, the California State Legislature passed and Governor Jerry Brown signed SB 1, the Road Repair and Accountability Act, in 2017. SB 1 increases state revenues for transportation purposes through higher gas and diesel taxes and raises vehicle registration fees.
Under Prop 69, the state constitution is amended to prohibit funding in the transportation account from being be loaned or otherwise transferred to another state account or fund. The purpose is to ensure the revenues are actually spent for transportation purposes and not diverted away or loaned, which has occurred in the past.
Ag Council’s board voted to SUPPORT Prop 69 to add protections on the state spending of transportation revenues.
Prop 68 – Neutral/No recommendation
Parks and Climate Change Bond
Prop 68 authorizes $4.1 billion in general obligation bonds for a variety of investments in state parks, efforts to address climate change, natural resources restoration and water programs.
If approved by voters, about $1.2 billion in Prop 68 funding is allocated for the protection of watersheds, redwoods and creeks, as well as habitat restoration, urban greenways, river parkways, and marine wildlife. Approximately $1.3 billion is provided for parks and recreation in both urban and rural communities, particularly in low-income areas. Further, $1.6 billion is allocated for water programs, including groundwater cleanup, drinking water treatment and flood protection. Among Prop 68 funds, up to $20 million is authorized for the State Water Enhancement and Efficiency Program (SWEEP) at the Department of Food and Agriculture.
The funding in Prop 68 for flood protection, groundwater cleanup and SWEEP is notable. However, overall, Proposition 68 provides rather modest benefits for the agricultural community for the $4.1 billion price tag. As a result, Ag Council’s board decided to take a neutral position and make NO RECOMMENDATION on Proposition 68.
The 2018 Gubernatorial Election: Who wins?
The major gubernatorial candidates in California in random order (from top left): John Cox, John Chiang, Gavin Newsom, Delaine Eastin, Travis Allen and Antonio Villaraigosa. Photo courtesy of the SF Chronicle.
A look at the numbers
by Emily Rooney, Ag Council President
In case you missed it….the following op-ed was published in a previous newsletter, and the updated version below provides the latest voter registration statistics.
With absentee ballots awaiting our decisions and a flurry of campaign ads on the airwaves, it is clear we are back in another election cycle. What is unique about this election year is the escalating battle between California and the Trump Administration on almost every issue from immigration to climate change. We have heard a lot about the U.S. EPA taking on California over emissions standards lately, but according to the LA Times, California has 32 lawsuits against the Trump Administration on a multitude of issues. Clearly, the rift between the state and federal government will only continue over the next few years.
Does this battle matter to voters? The answer is hard to definitively say. It is apparent the leadership in the state Democrat Party seems to think so since the top leaders often wage the battles. And, voter registration numbers in the last two years have gone slightly in their favor, which may prove they are right. Take a look:
Secretary of State’s Voter Registration Statistics
Democrat Republican No Party Preference (NPP)
January 2016 43.1% 27.6% 24%
May 2018 44.4% 25.1% 25.5%
Not only is the Republican Party outnumbered by No Party Preference (NPP) registered voters, but it is the GOP—as opposed to the Democrat Party—that is losing more of those voters who are moving over to NPP.
In order to win the general election in November, a Republican candidate would have to pick up every Republican vote and the vast majority of NPP voters. This assumes that all Democrats will vote for their candidate at the current 44.4 percent.
So, what counties have the most voters in the NPP category?
The list of top 10 counties with voters in this category leads with San Francisco, and also includes Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara counties. Not surprisingly, data by the Public Policy Institute of California shows Los Angeles and Bay Area residents have more progressive leaning beliefs than the inland and other regions.
If this is a pure numbers game, it does not look good for a Republican heading into the November gubernatorial general election. Couple that with the following factors: 1) the general election sees more left-leaning voters and 2) the party of the U.S. president usually takes a hit in the midterms. In this case, the outcome skews even further to the left, if history repeats itself. For Californians, this means that absent a rather significant political scandal, it is highly likely a Democrat gubernatorial candidate wins in November.
This is why you heard Democrat gubernatorial candidate and current Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom saying during the recent debate that it is no secret he would like Republican John Cox to be his opponent in November. It is because Newsom knows his chances of winning are much greater!
The important take away from these numbers is that moderate and conservative voters in California have more influence in a general election for governor if two candidates from the Democrat Party are on the November ballot. At this point, Democrat voters would likely split, with moderate and conservative voters potentially having more control over the final outcome.
Ag Council members should think about what they want the outcome to be in November before they cast their vote in the June primary because, this time around, it seems the June primary has the potential to either lock in the final outcome, or make it a very interesting run through November.